2018 Preliminary Election Result Summary

2018 Preliminary Election Result Summary

As of November 11, 2018, 6:00 PM PST with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County:

  • The voter turnout in San Diego County is on-track to reach 65% based on 798,429 ballots cast and 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County as of November 11, 2018. The last time a midterm election reached 60% was in 2010 when turnout was 64.23%.

  • In a race where Rep. Duncan D. Hunter (US CA-D50) had usually enjoyed an average 30% point advantage against his 2nd place challengers, challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar is only trailing by 6.4% point (11,488 votes)

  • In a race where Mayor Sam Abed (Escondido) had enjoyed a 23.75% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger in 2014, challenger Paul “Mac” McNamara is only trailing by 0.32% point (94 votes!)

  • In a race where City Councilmember Ed Gallo (Escondido D01) had held off challenger Consuelo Martinez by 1.09% point (69 votes!) in 2014, candidate Consuelo Martinez is leading by 20.74% point (772 votes)

  • In a race where City Councilmember John Masson (Escondido D02) had enjoyed a 25.14% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger in 2014, challenger Vanessa Valenzuela has narrowed the margin to 16.66% (1,439 votes)

  • In a race where Assemblymember Marie Waldron (CA State Assembly D75) had usually enjoyed an average 30% point advantage against his challengers, challenger Alan Geraci has narrowed the margin to 16% point (17,673)

  • In a race where incumbent Senator Joel Anderson (CA State Senate D38), who termed out, had enjoyed an average 34% point advantage, Democrat candidate Jeff Griffith narrowed the margin to 10% point (24,955 votes) against Republican candidate Brian Jones.

Voter Turnout in San Diego County

The voter turnout in San Diego County is on-track to reach 65% based on 798,429 ballots cast and 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County as of November 11, 2018. The last time a midterm election reached 60% was in 2010 when turnout was 64.23%.

Midterm Election 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Registered Voters 1,399,628 1,381,835 1,442,161 1,546,924 1,767,300
Total Voted 684,285 789,676 926,363 692,434 1,154,429
% of Turnout 48.89% 57.15% 64.23% 44.76% 65.32%

Presidential Election 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Registered Voters 1,411,672 1,513,300 1,4888,157 1,563,093 1,652,875
Total Voted 978,569 1,145,035 1,245,947 1,202,65 1,346,513
% of Turnout 69.32% 75.66% 83.72% 76.98% 81.46%

US House of Representatives: California 50th District

US House of Representatives are elected to 2-years terms. California US Congressional District 50 includes Escondido.

The current representative, Duncan D. Hunter (Republican, Alpine), has been US House of Representative member of California’s 50th District (previously 52nd) since 2009 for 5 two-year terms.

Of Representative Duncan D. Hunter:
– In 2017: Voted 3 times to repeal the Affordable Care Act
– In 2018: Indicted of conspiracy to commit offenses against the United States, wire fraud, falsification of records and prohibited use of campaign contributions ($250,000 of the Hunters’ alleged illegal spending, broken down by type and by who spent it)
– Continue to advance conspiracy theories of a deep state government and employ fearmongering, anti-immigration and Islamphobic rhetoric for his political advantage (The Cruel Congressional Campaign of Duncan Hunter Comes From a Familiar Playbook)

Since he first ran for congress in 2008, Representative Duncan D. Hunter had enjoyed on average 30% point advantage against his 2nd place his challengers. But this year, challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar is only trailing by 6.4% point (11,488 votes) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

US CA-D50 2012 2014 2016 2018
D. Hunter (Rep) 174,838 67.70% 111,997 71.20% 179,937 63.50% 93,495 53.30%
Challenger 83,455 32.30% 45,302 28.80% 103,646 36.50% 81,838 46.70%
Differential 91,383 35.40% 66,695 42.40% 76,291 27.00% 11,488 06.40%

US CA-D52 2008 2010
D. Hunter (Rep) 160,724 56.40% 139,460 63.10%
Challenger (Dem) 111,051 39.00% 70,870 32.10%
Challenger (Lib) 13,316 04.60% 10,732 04.80%
Challenger (Ind) 47 00.00% N/A N/A
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 49,673 17.40% 68,590 31.00%

Escondido City Council

Escondido Mayor and City Councilmembers are elected to serve 4-years terms. In 2013, Escondido was 4 drawn into council districts as a result of a consent decree. So since then, the election for Mayor, District 1 and District 2 are held during the Governor General Election (Midterm, e.g. 2018, 2014, 2010) while District 3 and District 4 are held during the President General Election (e.g. 2016, 2012).

Voter Turnout in Escondido

The numbers for voter turnout in Escondido for 2018 hasn’t been published, but based on the total number of votes in the mayor race, it will most likely reach 30,000 (60%) as well.

Midterm Election (ESC) 2006 2010 2014 2018
Registered Voters 49,192 54,048 59,942
Total Voted 29,274 34,279 28,687
% of Turnout 59.51% 63.42% 47.86%

Presidential Election (ESC) 2004 2008 2012 2016
Registered Voters 56,601 52,811 59,068 63,019
Total Voted 41,883 44,207 44,112 99,963
% of Turnout 74.00% 83.71% 74.68% 158.62%

Mayor

The current mayor, Sam Abed (Republican), has been Mayor of Escondido since 2011 for 2 four-years terms. Before that, he was City Councilmember of Escondido for 1 1/2 four-years terms (2004, 2008).

During his terms as city councilmember and mayor, he and the city council majority:
Pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country
Closed Escondido East Valley Public Branch Library and outsourced library operations of Escondido Public Library to an out-of-state company, Library Systems and Services
Adopted a contract in 2002 for JC Resorts to operate city-owned Reidy Creek Golf that is not tied to performance and which increase payment fees by 3-4% every year regardless, and used over $5 million taxpayer dollars to subsidize Reidy Creek Golf’s operations over the past 12 years

In 2014, Mayor Sam Abed had enjoyed a 23.75% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger. But this year, challenger Paul “Mac” McNamara is only trailing by 0.32% point (94 votes!) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

Mayor 2010 2014 2018
Sam Abed (Rep) 11,743 37.80% 16,244 59.04% 14,503 50.16%
Challenger 9,811 31.58% 9,699 35.29% 14,409 49.86%
Challenger 7,330 23.59% 1,509 5.49% N/A N/A
Write-in 2,132 06.86% N/A N/A 108 0.45%
Total Votes 31,068 27,482 29,020
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 1,932 06.22% 6,545 23.75% 94 0.32%

City Councilmember: District 1

The current city councilmember, Ed Gallo (Republican), has been the City Councilmember of District 1 since 2001 for 4 four-years terms (2000, 2004, 2010, 2014).

He is part of a city council majority that pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country as well as closing the Escondido East Valley Public Branch Library and outsourcing library operations of Escondido Public Library to an out-of-state company, Library Systems and Services. He also approved in 2017 a water treatment plant location in his district directly adjacent to residential areas.

In 2014, City Councilmember Ed Gallo (Republican) had held off challenger Consuelo Martinez by 1.09% point (69 votes!), but this year, candidate Consuelo Martinez is leading by 20.42% point (756 votes) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

City Council D01 2014 2018
Ed Gallo (Rep) 1,664 50.98% 1,476 39.63%
Consuelo Martinez (Dem) 1,595 49.89% 2,248 60.37%
Total Votes 3,264 3,724
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 69 1.09% (772) (20.74%)

City Councilmember: District 2

The current city councilmember, John Masson (Republican), has been the City Councilmember of District 2 since 2015 for 2 1/2 four-years term. He was appointed to the City Council when the then City Councilmember Marie Waldron was elected to the State Assembly in 2012.

He is part of a city council majority that pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country as well as closing the Escondido East Valley Public Branch Library and outsourcing library operations of Escondido Public Library to an out-of-state company, Library Systems and Services.

In 2014, City Councilmember John Masson had enjoyed a 25.14% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger. But this year, challenger Vanessa Valenzuela has narrowed the margin to 16.66% point (1,439 votes) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

City Council D02 2014 2018
John Masson (Rep) 4,036 48.83% 4,581 53.04%
Challenger 1,958 23.69% 3,142 36.38%
Challenger 1,335 16.15% 914 10.58%
Challenger 905 10.95% N/A N/A
Write-in N/A N/A 22 0.30%
Total Votes 8,266 8,659
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 2,078 25.14% 1,439 16.66%

Escondido Municipal Elections Prior to 2014

City Council 2006 2010
Marie Waldron (Rep) 13,915 29.65% Marie Waldron (Rep) 11,977 22.41%
Dick Daniels (Dem) 11,251 23.97% Ed Gallo (Rep) 9,970 18.66%
Candidate 7,634 16.27% Candidate 9,927 18.58%
Candidate 4,207 8.96% Candidate 7,196 13.47%
Candidate 3,549 7.56% Candidate 5,252 9.83%
Candidate 3,298 7.03% Candidate 4,624 8.65%
Candidate 3,022 6.44% Candidate 4,448 8.32%
Total Votes 46,934 53,433

City Council 2004 2008 2012
Ed Gallo (Rep) 20,215 32.53% Sam Abed (Rep) 18,024 27.13% Mike Morasco (Rep) 16,721 25.99%
Sam Abed (Rep) 14,556 23.43% Olga Diaz (Dem) 17,153 25.82% Olga Diaz (Dem) 15,854 24.64%
Candidate 13,934 22.43% Ed Gallo (Rep) 15,085 22.71% Candidate 10,120 15.73%
Candidate 9,881 15.90% Candidate 6,487 9.77% Candidate 6,606 10.27%
Candidate 3,472 5.59% Candidate 4,864 7.32% Candidate 5,539 8.61%
Candidate 4,707 7.09% Candidate 5,279 8.20%
Candidate 4,174 6.49%
Total Votes 66,425 64,345

California State Assembly: 75th District

California State Assemblymembers are elected to 2-years terms, and they are limited to 6 terms (or 12 years combination in state legislature as state senator or assemblymembers). California State Assembly District 75 includes Escondido.

The current state assemblymember, Marie Waldron (Republican, Escondido), has been Assemblymember since 2013 for 3 two-years term. Before that, she was a city councilmember of Escondido for 3 1/2 four-years terms (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010).

Of Assemblymember Marie Waldron:
– In 2006: Authored “an [city] ordinance that prohibited landlords from renting housing to unauthorized immigrants. [16]”

The city council had passed the ordinance, but fortunately, “[d]ue to a lawsuit and temporary injunction by a federal judge, the city rescinded the ordinance in December 2006. [17a, b, c, d]” However, her legacy remains: she was part of a city council majority that pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country.

Since she first ran for state assembly in 2012, Assemblymember Marie Waldron had usually enjoyed an average 30% point advantage against his challengers. But this year, challenger Alan Geraci has narrowed the margin to 16% point (17,673) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

State Assembly D75 2012 2014 2016 2018
Marie Waldron (Rep) 98,686 62.70% 66,152 69.00% 111,598 62.90% 63,922 58.10%
Challenger 58,783 37.30% 29,761 31.00% 65,770 37.10% 46,673 41.90%
Differential 39,903 25.40% 36,391 38.00% 45,828 25.80% 17,673 16.00%

California State Senate: 38th District

California State Senators are elected for 4-years terms, and if elected 2012 and after they are limited to 3 terms (or 12 years combination in state legislature as state senator or assemblymembers). If elected prior to 2012, they are limited to 2 terms (8 years). California State Senate District 38 includes Escondido.

The current state senator, Joel Anderson (Republican, Alpine), has been Senator of the 38th District (previously 36th) since 2011 for 2 four-years term.

Of Senator Joel Anderson:
– In 2009: Fined $20,000 by the Fair Political Practices Commission: Contributions to Fresno County Republican Central Committee exceeded the $3,900 limit on personal donations that candidates can accept (Anderson fined for donation violations)
– In 2018: Reprimanded for “completely unacceptable” behavior and threatening to “bitch slap” a female lobbyist (State Sen. Joel Anderson reprimanded for ‘completely unacceptable’ behavior toward female lobbyist)
– Continue to employ fearmongering, anti-immigration rhetoric for his political advantage, especially in Escondido

However, he termed out and so for this year’s 2018 election, a new state senator is being elected: Brian Jones (Republican) vs. Jeff Griffith (Democrat).

When he ran for state senate, Senator Joel Anderson had enjoyed an average 34% point advantage. But this year, Democrat candidate Jeff Griffith narrowed the margin to 10% point (24,955 votes) against Republican candidate Brian Jones as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

State Senate D36 2010 State Senate D36 2014 State Senate D38 2018
J. Anderson (Rep) 193,573 63.20% J. Anderson (Rep) 146,510 68.90% B. Jones (Rep) 136,543 55.00%
P. Clay (Dem) 101,112 33.00% F. Tsimboukakis (Dem) 66,066 31.10% J. Griffith (Dem) 111,588 45.00%
M. Metti (Lib) 11,737 03.88% Differential 80,444 37.80% Differential 24,955 10.00%
Differential 92,461 30.20%

As for Senator Joel Anderson, he ran for Board of Equalization 4th District. Democrat candidate Mike Schaefer is only trailing by a narrow 0.4% point (17,491 votes) margin against him as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County. ETA: See Voice of San Diego’s Sacramento Report: With Anderson Incident, Board of Equalization Race Just Got Even Weirder for a summary of the Board of Equalization 4th District race.

Reference:
– Escondido City Election Information, https://www.escondido.org/city-election-information.aspx
– San Diego County of Registrar, https://www.sdvote.com
– San Diego County Election Results, https://www2.sdcounty.ca.gov/rov/Eng/Past.html
– California Statewide Election Results, https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results/

Comments are closed.
%d bloggers like this: