As of November 11, 2018, 6:00 PM PST with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County:

• The voter turnout in San Diego County is on-track to reach 65% based on 798,429 ballots cast and 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County as of November 11, 2018. The last time a midterm election reached 60% was in 2010 when turnout was 64.23%.

• In a race where Rep. Duncan D. Hunter (US CA-D50) had usually enjoyed an average 30% point advantage against his 2nd place challengers, challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar is only trailing by 6.4% point (11,488 votes)

• In a race where Mayor Sam Abed (Escondido) had enjoyed a 23.75% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger in 2014, challenger Paul “Mac” McNamara is only trailing by 0.32% point (94 votes!)

• In a race where City Councilmember Ed Gallo (Escondido D01) had held off challenger Consuelo Martinez by 1.09% point (69 votes!) in 2014, candidate Consuelo Martinez is leading by 20.74% point (772 votes)

• In a race where City Councilmember John Masson (Escondido D02) had enjoyed a 25.14% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger in 2014, challenger Vanessa Valenzuela has narrowed the margin to 16.66% (1,439 votes)

• In a race where Assemblymember Marie Waldron (CA State Assembly D75) had usually enjoyed an average 30% point advantage against his challengers, challenger Alan Geraci has narrowed the margin to 16% point (17,673)

• In a race where incumbent Senator Joel Anderson (CA State Senate D38), who termed out, had enjoyed an average 34% point advantage, Democrat candidate Jeff Griffith narrowed the margin to 10% point (24,955 votes) against Republican candidate Brian Jones.

Voter Turnout in San Diego County

The voter turnout in San Diego County is on-track to reach 65% based on 798,429 ballots cast and 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County as of November 11, 2018. The last time a midterm election reached 60% was in 2010 when turnout was 64.23%.

Midterm Election	2002	2006	2010	2014	2018
Registered Voters	1,399,628	1,381,835	1,442,161	1,546,924	1,767,300
Total Voted	684,285	789,676	926,363	692,434	1,154,429
% of Turnout	48.89%	57.15%	64.23%	44.76%	65.32%

 

Presidential Election	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
Registered Voters	1,411,672	1,513,300	1,4888,157	1,563,093	1,652,875
Total Voted	978,569	1,145,035	1,245,947	1,202,65	1,346,513
% of Turnout	69.32%	75.66%	83.72%	76.98%	81.46%

US House of Representatives: California 50th District

US House of Representatives are elected to 2-years terms. California US Congressional District 50 includes Escondido.

The current representative, Duncan D. Hunter (Republican, Alpine), has been US House of Representative member of California’s 50th District (previously 52nd) since 2009 for 5 two-year terms.

Of Representative Duncan D. Hunter:
– In 2017: Voted 3 times to repeal the Affordable Care Act
– In 2018: Indicted of conspiracy to commit offenses against the United States, wire fraud, falsification of records and prohibited use of campaign contributions ($250,000 of the Hunters’ alleged illegal spending, broken down by type and by who spent it)
– Continue to advance conspiracy theories of a deep state government and employ fearmongering, anti-immigration and Islamphobic rhetoric for his political advantage (The Cruel Congressional Campaign of Duncan Hunter Comes From a Familiar Playbook)

Since he first ran for congress in 2008, Representative Duncan D. Hunter had enjoyed on average 30% point advantage against his 2nd place his challengers. But this year, challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar is only trailing by 6.4% point (11,488 votes) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

US CA-D50		2012		2014		2016		2018
D. Hunter (Rep)	174,838	67.70%	111,997	71.20%	179,937	63.50%	93,495	53.30%
Challenger	83,455	32.30%	45,302	28.80%	103,646	36.50%	81,838	46.70%
Differential	91,383	35.40%	66,695	42.40%	76,291	27.00%	11,488	06.40%

 

US CA-D52		2008		2010
D. Hunter (Rep)	160,724	56.40%	139,460	63.10%
Challenger (Dem)	111,051	39.00%	70,870	32.10%
Challenger (Lib)	13,316	04.60%	10,732	04.80%
Challenger (Ind)	47	00.00%	N/A	N/A
Differential (1st vs. 2nd)	49,673	17.40%	68,590	31.00%

Escondido City Council

Escondido Mayor and City Councilmembers are elected to serve 4-years terms. In 2013, Escondido was 4 drawn into council districts as a result of a consent decree. So since then, the election for Mayor, District 1 and District 2 are held during the Governor General Election (Midterm, e.g. 2018, 2014, 2010) while District 3 and District 4 are held during the President General Election (e.g. 2016, 2012).

Voter Turnout in Escondido

The numbers for voter turnout in Escondido for 2018 hasn’t been published, but based on the total number of votes in the mayor race, it will most likely reach 30,000 (60%) as well.

Midterm Election (ESC)	2006	2010	2014	2018
Registered Voters	49,192	54,048	59,942
Total Voted	29,274	34,279	28,687
% of Turnout	59.51%	63.42%	47.86%

 

Presidential Election (ESC)	2004	2008	2012	2016
Registered Voters	56,601	52,811	59,068	63,019
Total Voted	41,883	44,207	44,112	99,963
% of Turnout	74.00%	83.71%	74.68%	158.62%

Mayor

The current mayor, Sam Abed (Republican), has been Mayor of Escondido since 2011 for 2 four-years terms. Before that, he was City Councilmember of Escondido for 1 1/2 four-years terms (2004, 2008).

During his terms as city councilmember and mayor, he and the city council majority:
– Pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country
– Closed Escondido East Valley Public Branch Library and outsourced library operations of Escondido Public Library to an out-of-state company, Library Systems and Services
– Adopted a contract in 2002 for JC Resorts to operate city-owned Reidy Creek Golf that is not tied to performance and which increase payment fees by 3-4% every year regardless, and used over $5 million taxpayer dollars to subsidize Reidy Creek Golf’s operations over the past 12 years

In 2014, Mayor Sam Abed had enjoyed a 23.75% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger. But this year, challenger Paul “Mac” McNamara is only trailing by 0.32% point (94 votes!) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

Mayor		2010		2014		2018
Sam Abed (Rep)	11,743	37.80%	16,244	59.04%	14,503	50.16%
Challenger	9,811	31.58%	9,699	35.29%	14,409	49.86%
Challenger	7,330	23.59%	1,509	5.49%	N/A	N/A
Write-in	2,132	06.86%	N/A	N/A	108	0.45%
Total Votes	31,068		27,482		29,020
Differential (1st vs. 2nd)	1,932	06.22%	6,545	23.75%	94	0.32%

City Councilmember: District 1

The current city councilmember, Ed Gallo (Republican), has been the City Councilmember of District 1 since 2001 for 4 four-years terms (2000, 2004, 2010, 2014).

He is part of a city council majority that pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country as well as closing the Escondido East Valley Public Branch Library and outsourcing library operations of Escondido Public Library to an out-of-state company, Library Systems and Services. He also approved in 2017 a water treatment plant location in his district directly adjacent to residential areas.

In 2014, City Councilmember Ed Gallo (Republican) had held off challenger Consuelo Martinez by 1.09% point (69 votes!), but this year, candidate Consuelo Martinez is leading by 20.42% point (756 votes) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

City Council D01		2014		2018
Ed Gallo (Rep)	1,664	50.98%	1,476	39.63%
Consuelo Martinez (Dem)	1,595	49.89%	2,248	60.37%
Total Votes	3,264		3,724
Differential (1st vs. 2nd)	69	1.09%	(772)	(20.74%)

City Councilmember: District 2

The current city councilmember, John Masson (Republican), has been the City Councilmember of District 2 since 2015 for 2 1/2 four-years term. He was appointed to the City Council when the then City Councilmember Marie Waldron was elected to the State Assembly in 2012.

He is part of a city council majority that pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country as well as closing the Escondido East Valley Public Branch Library and outsourcing library operations of Escondido Public Library to an out-of-state company, Library Systems and Services.

In 2014, City Councilmember John Masson had enjoyed a 25.14% point advantage against his 2nd place challenger. But this year, challenger Vanessa Valenzuela has narrowed the margin to 16.66% point (1,439 votes) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

City Council D02		2014		2018
John Masson (Rep)	4,036	48.83%	4,581	53.04%
Challenger	1,958	23.69%	3,142	36.38%
Challenger	1,335	16.15%	914	10.58%
Challenger	905	10.95%	N/A	N/A
Write-in	N/A	N/A	22	0.30%
Total Votes	8,266		8,659
Differential (1st vs. 2nd)	2,078	25.14%	1,439	16.66%

Escondido Municipal Elections Prior to 2014

City Council		2006			2010
Marie Waldron (Rep)	13,915	29.65%	Marie Waldron (Rep)	11,977	22.41%
Dick Daniels (Dem)	11,251	23.97%	Ed Gallo (Rep)	9,970	18.66%
Candidate	7,634	16.27%	Candidate	9,927	18.58%
Candidate	4,207	8.96%	Candidate	7,196	13.47%
Candidate	3,549	7.56%	Candidate	5,252	9.83%
Candidate	3,298	7.03%	Candidate	4,624	8.65%
Candidate	3,022	6.44%	Candidate	4,448	8.32%
Total Votes	46,934			53,433

 

City Council		2004			2008			2012
Ed Gallo (Rep)	20,215	32.53%	Sam Abed (Rep)	18,024	27.13%	Mike Morasco (Rep)	16,721	25.99%
Sam Abed (Rep)	14,556	23.43%	Olga Diaz (Dem)	17,153	25.82%	Olga Diaz (Dem)	15,854	24.64%
Candidate	13,934	22.43%	Ed Gallo (Rep)	15,085	22.71%	Candidate	10,120	15.73%
Candidate	9,881	15.90%	Candidate	6,487	9.77%	Candidate	6,606	10.27%
Candidate	3,472	5.59%	Candidate	4,864	7.32%	Candidate	5,539	8.61%
			Candidate	4,707	7.09%	Candidate	5,279	8.20%
						Candidate	4,174	6.49%
Total Votes				66,425			64,345

California State Assembly: 75th District

California State Assemblymembers are elected to 2-years terms, and they are limited to 6 terms (or 12 years combination in state legislature as state senator or assemblymembers). California State Assembly District 75 includes Escondido.

The current state assemblymember, Marie Waldron (Republican, Escondido), has been Assemblymember since 2013 for 3 two-years term. Before that, she was a city councilmember of Escondido for 3 1/2 four-years terms (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010).

Of Assemblymember Marie Waldron:
– In 2006: Authored “an [city] ordinance that prohibited landlords from renting housing to unauthorized immigrants. [16]”

The city council had passed the ordinance, but fortunately, “[d]ue to a lawsuit and temporary injunction by a federal judge, the city rescinded the ordinance in December 2006. [17a, b, c, d]” However, her legacy remains: she was part of a city council majority that pursued discriminatory policies toward immigrants and turned Escondido into one of the toughest anti-immigration city in the country.

Since she first ran for state assembly in 2012, Assemblymember Marie Waldron had usually enjoyed an average 30% point advantage against his challengers. But this year, challenger Alan Geraci has narrowed the margin to 16% point (17,673) as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

State Assembly D75		2012		2014		2016		2018
Marie Waldron (Rep)	98,686	62.70%	66,152	69.00%	111,598	62.90%	63,922	58.10%
Challenger	58,783	37.30%	29,761	31.00%	65,770	37.10%	46,673	41.90%
Differential	39,903	25.40%	36,391	38.00%	45,828	25.80%	17,673	16.00%

California State Senate: 38th District

California State Senators are elected for 4-years terms, and if elected 2012 and after they are limited to 3 terms (or 12 years combination in state legislature as state senator or assemblymembers). If elected prior to 2012, they are limited to 2 terms (8 years). California State Senate District 38 includes Escondido.

The current state senator, Joel Anderson (Republican, Alpine), has been Senator of the 38th District (previously 36th) since 2011 for 2 four-years term.

Of Senator Joel Anderson:
– In 2009: Fined $20,000 by the Fair Political Practices Commission: Contributions to Fresno County Republican Central Committee exceeded the $3,900 limit on personal donations that candidates can accept (Anderson fined for donation violations)
– In 2018: Reprimanded for “completely unacceptable” behavior and threatening to “bitch slap” a female lobbyist (State Sen. Joel Anderson reprimanded for ‘completely unacceptable’ behavior toward female lobbyist)
– Continue to employ fearmongering, anti-immigration rhetoric for his political advantage, especially in Escondido

However, he termed out and so for this year’s 2018 election, a new state senator is being elected: Brian Jones (Republican) vs. Jeff Griffith (Democrat).

When he ran for state senate, Senator Joel Anderson had enjoyed an average 34% point advantage. But this year, Democrat candidate Jeff Griffith narrowed the margin to 10% point (24,955 votes) against Republican candidate Brian Jones as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County.

State Senate D36		2010	State Senate D36		2014	State Senate D38		2018
J. Anderson (Rep)	193,573	63.20%	J. Anderson (Rep)	146,510	68.90%	B. Jones (Rep)	136,543	55.00%
P. Clay (Dem)	101,112	33.00%	F. Tsimboukakis (Dem)	66,066	31.10%	J. Griffith (Dem)	111,588	45.00%
M. Metti (Lib)	11,737	03.88%	Differential	80,444	37.80%	Differential	24,955	10.00%
Differential	92,461	30.20%

As for Senator Joel Anderson, he ran for Board of Equalization 4th District. Democrat candidate Mike Schaefer is only trailing by a narrow 0.4% point (17,491 votes) margin against him as of November 11, 2018 with 356,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in San Diego County. ETA: See Voice of San Diego’s Sacramento Report: With Anderson Incident, Board of Equalization Race Just Got Even Weirder for a summary of the Board of Equalization 4th District race.

Reference:
– Escondido City Election Information, <https://www.escondido.org/city-election-information.aspx>
– San Diego County of Registrar, <https://www.sdvote.com>
– San Diego County Election Results, <https://www2.sdcounty.ca.gov/rov/Eng/Past.html>
– California Statewide Election Results, <https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results/>