🗳️ Presidential Primary Election 2020

🗳️ Presidential Primary Election 2020

💜 A write-up from Escondido Indivisible, a grassroots group for liberty, justice and compassion for all. A version of this post is also available on Notion.

Our preliminary write-up of the Midterm Election 2018 is also available on our website. Please let us know of any errors in the data.

Summary

  • The voter turnout for this 2020 Presidential Primary in San Diego County almost reached 50% based on 907,602 ballots out of 1,825,237 registered voters.

  • For U.S. House of Representatives’ California District 50, candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar (Democrat, El Cajon) won with 36.5% (74,121) of the votes and will face former Representative Darrell Issa (Republican, Vista), who had 23.1% (47,036) of the votes, in November. But the party breakdown shows that Republicans won 55.7% (113,154) of the votes while Democrats 42.2% (85,678). The differential between the two parties is 13.5% (27,476).

  • For California State Assembly District 75, Assemblymember Marie Waldron (Republican, Escondido) won 56% (71,217) of the votes and will face candidate Kate Schwartz (Democrat, Fallbrook), who won 38% (47,988) of the votes, in November. The differential between the two is 18% (23,229).

  • For San Diego Board of Supervisors District 3, Supervisor Kristin Gaspar won 45% (50,781) of the votes and will face candidate Terra Lawson-Remer (Democrat), who won 30% (33,561) of the votes, in November. But the party breakdown shows that the Democratic Party won 54.68% (61,270) of the votes while the Republican Party won 45.32% (50,781). The differential between the two parties is 9.36% (10,489).

Data collected from San Diego County of Registrar and California Secretary of State. Please let us know of any errors in the data.

Voter Turnout in San Diego County

The voter turnout for this Presidential Primary Election 2020 in San Diego County reached almost 50% based on 907,602 ballots. This is 1% less turnout than in 2016, which had 51% turnout, and 11% less turnout than in 2008, which had 61% turnout (the highest turnout for a Presidential Primary of the last 20 years).

Hopefully, the turnout for upcoming General Presidential Election will be better: 2016 had 81% turnout which was 4% higher than in 2012 with 77% turnout, but 3% worse than in 2008 with 84% turnout (the highest turnout for a General Presidential Election of the past 20 years).

As a comparison, in General Midterm Election 2018, we had 66% turnout which was the highest turnout for a Midterm General Election of the past 18 years and 2% higher turnout than in 2010 (the next highest Midterm General Election of the past 18 years).

Midterm Election Turnout

Primary Midterm Election 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Registered Voters 1,355,756 1,356,018 1,416,273 1,544,841 1,693,774
Total Voted 452,741 505,715 538,551 420,700 673,640
% of Turnout 33.39% 37.29% 38.03% 27.23% 39.77%

General Midterm Election 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Registered Voters 1,399,628 1,381,835 1,442,161 1,546,924 1,767,300
Total Voted 684,285 789,676 926,363 692,434 1,173,924
% of Turnout 48.89% 57.15% 64.23% 44.76% 66.42%

Presidential Election Turnout

Primary Presidential Election 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Registered Voters 1,304,311 1,336,353 1,313,725 1,465,269 1,523,251 1,825,237
Total Voted 693,088 621,429 797,043 548,462 775,930 907,602
% of Turnout 53.14% 46.50% 60.67% 37.43% 50.94% 49.73%

General Presidential Election 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Registered Voters 1,411,672 1,513,300 1,488,157 1,563,093 1,652,875
Total Voted 978,569 1,145,035 1,245,947 1,202,65 1,346,513
% of Turnout 69.32% 75.66% 83.72% 76.98% 81.46%

US House of Representatives: California 50th District

US House of Representatives are elected to 2-years terms. US Congressional District 50 of California includes Escondido.

The recent representative was 🐰 Duncan D. Hunter (Republican, Alpine) who resigned in January 2020 after pleading guilty to intentionally misusing campaign funds. He was a US House of Representative member of California’s 50th District (previously 52nd) since 2009 for 5 two-year terms.

Of former Representative Duncan D. Hunter:

US CA-D50 Election Results

For the Presidential Primary Election 2020, candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar (Democrat, El Cajon) won with 36.5% (74,121) of the votes and will face former Representative Darrell Issa (Republican, Vista), who had 23.1% (47,036) of the votes, in November.

In 2018, Campa-Najjar narrowed 🐰 Rep. Duncan D. Hunter’s margin to 3% (5,867). Hunter had usually enjoyed on average 30% point advantage against his challengers.

From a political party breakdown, Republicans won 55.7% (113,154) of the votes while Democrats 42.2% (85,678). The differential between the two parties is 13.5% (27,476).

Party Votes %
Republican Party 113,154 55.70%
Democratic Party 85,678 42.20%
No Party Preference 2,567 1.20%
Peace & Freedom 1,821 0.90%
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 27,476 13.50%

Of former Representative Darrell Issa who does not live in the 50th District, but the 49th:

Primary Election

US CA-D50 2012 2014 2016
D. Hunter (R) 76,818 67.40% 62,371 70.40% 86,534 56.50%
Challenger A (D) 19,142 16.80% 21,552 24.30% 33,348 21.80%
Challenger B 8,553 7.50% 4,634 5.20% 17,590 11.50%
Challenger C 6,160 5.40% N/A N/A 10,458 6.80%
Challenger D 3275 2.90% N/A N/A 5,359 3.50%
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 57,676 51.00% 40,819 45.70% 53,186 34.70%

US CA-D50 2018 2020
D. Hunter (R) 62,917 47.29% N/A N/A
Challenger A (D) 23,687 17.79% 74,121 36.50%
Challenger B 17,295 12.99% 47,036 23.10%
Challenger C 17,255 12.96% 40,347 19.90%
Challenger D 7,538 5.66% 21,495 10.60%
Challenger E 2,742 2.06% 11,557 4.79%
Challenger F 1,554 1.17% 4,276 2.10%
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 39,230 29.50% 12,239 11.03%

General Election

US CA-D50 2012 2014 2016 2018
D. Hunter (R) 174,838 67.70% 111,997 71.20% 179,937 63.50% 118,712 51.27%
Challenger (D) 83,455 32.30% 45,302 28.80% 103,646 36.50% 112,845 48.73%
Differential 91,383 35.40% 66,695 42.40% 76,291 27.00% 5,867 2.54%

US CA-D52 Election Results

Note that from 1993 to 2009, Hunter’s father, 🏦 Duncan L. Hunter, was the representative for District 52. and had also faced a financial corruption allegation where 🏦 Hunter “had written 407 overdrafts totaling more than $129,000 at the House Bank over a three-year period.”:

US CA-D52 General 2008 2010
D. Hunter (R) 160,724 56.40% 139,460 63.10%
Challenger (D) 111,051 39.00% 70,870 32.10%
Challenger (L) 13,316 4.60% 10,732 4.80%
Challenger (I) 47 0.00% N/A N/A
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 49,673 17.40% 68,590 31.00%

California State Assembly: 75th District

California State Assemblymembers are elected to 2-years terms, and they are limited to 6 terms (or 12 years combination in state legislature as state senator or assemblymembers). California State Assembly District 75 includes Escondido.

The current state assemblymember, Marie Waldron (Republican, Escondido), has been Assemblymember since 2013 for 3 two-years term. Before that, she was a city councilmember of Escondido for 3 1/2 four-years terms (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010).

Of the then-City Councilmember Marie Waldron:

State Assembly D75 Election Results

For the Presidential Primary Election 2020, Assemblymember Marie Waldron won 56% (71,217) of the votes and will face candidate Kate Schwartz (Democrat, Fallbrook), who won 38% (47,988) of the votes, in November. The differential between the two is 18% (23,229).

Since she first ran for state assembly in 2012, Waldron had usually enjoyed an average 25% point advantage against her challengers. But in 2018, candidate Alan Geraci narrowed the margin to 13% (21,529).

Primary Election

State Assembly D75 2012 2014 2016
Marie Waldron (R) 44,013 68.60% 41,510 99.10% 56,407 60.00%
Challenger A (D) 20,180 31.40% 375 0.90% 37,104 39.70%
Challenger B N/A N/A 14 0.00% N/A N/A
Differential 23,833 37.00% 41,135 98.30% 19,303 20.30%

State Assembly D75 2018 2020
Marie Waldron (R) 56,646 61.60% 71,217 56.30%
Challenger A (D) 35,324 38.40% 47,988 37.90%
Challenger B N/A N/A 7,327 5.80%
Differential 21,000 23.20% 23,229 18.40%

General Election

State Assembly D75 2012 2014 2016 2018
Marie Waldron (R) 98,686 62.70% 66,152 69.00% 111,598 62.90% 95,236 56.40%
Challenger (D) 58,783 37.30% 29,761 31.00% 65,770 37.10% 73,707 43.60%
Differential 39,903 25.00% 36,391 38.00% 45,828 25.80% 21,529 12.80%

San Diego County Board of Supervisors District 3

San Diego County Board of Supervisors are elected to two four-years terms and comprises of five districts. District 3 includes Escondido.

The current Board of Supervisor, Kristin Gaspar (Republican, Encinitas), was first elected to the office in 2016 beating the then incumbent Board of Supervisor Dave Roberts by 0.56% margin (1,272 votes). Roberts was found in 2015 to “inappropriate use of County funds, promoting a hostile work environment, an alleged bribe, campaigning on County time, improper use of a County vehicle and retaliation against District 3 staff members”.

Of Supervisor Kristin Gaspar:

SDC Board of Supervisors District 3 Election Results

For this Presidential Primary Election 2020, Supervisor Kristin Gaspar won 45% (50,781) of the votes and will face candidate Terra Lawson-Remer (Democrat), who won 30% (33,561) of the votes, in November.

From a political party breakdown, the Democratic Party won 54.68% (61,270) of the votes while the Republican Party won 45.32% (50,781). The differential between the two parties is 9.36% (10,489).

Party Votes %
Republican Party 5,0781 45.32%
Democratic Party 6,1270 54.68%
Differential (1st vs. 2nd) 1,0489 9.36%

Primary Election

Board of Supervisors D3 2016 2020
Kristin Gaspar (R) 46,985 34.24% 50,781 45.32%
Incumbent/Challenger (D) 53,148 38.73% 33,561 29.95%
Challenger 36,899 26.89% 27,709 24.73%
Differential 6,163 4.49% 17,220 15.37%

General Election

Board of Supervisors D3 2016
Kristin Gaspar (R) 115,295 50.23%
Incumbent/Challenger (D) 114,023 49.67%
Differential 1,272 0.56%
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